Taste of Fall on the Way!

On this rainy Monday night, I thought we’d fast forward to the end of the week and this upcoming weekend as some of the coolest air we’ve seen in months moves into central Florida! The stalled area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Mid-West, the one that’s controlled our weather for the last several days, will finally push to the northeast as we move toward the end of the week. This will allow the first significant front of fall to push into central and south Florida, bringing with it noticeably cooler and less humid air. The cool down, coming during the first weekend in October, is also quite a bit ahead of schedule!

A few showers may linger across our southern counties Saturday morning, otherwise it turns quite sunny with highs only in the mid 80s. It’ll be breezy, too, but it’s a cooling and drying north breeze! With high pressure anchored to our north, Saturday night will be chilly for some of us (by early October standards) as some of our northern counties could fall into the 50s! The flow will turn more easterly on Sunday which could bring in a few more clouds to end the weekend, but it will still be pleasant with highs in the low 80s. My forecast high for Sunday is 83 right now; that would mark the coolest afternoon in Orlando since it was 83 on June 1!

Of course, fronts this time of year can be pretty fickle in Florida, so you’ll want to check back as the week goes on to make sure everything’s on target for the taste of fall. Right now, though, it looks like we’re full steam ahead!

Brian Monahan

Staying Unsettled to Start the Week

Good evening! After a weekend with afternoons featuring drenching, slow-moving thunderstorms, we could all probably use a break from the wet weather. For the next two days though, we’ll keep waiting! Upper level low pressure, anchored firmly over the Mid-West, will continue to spin its wheels through mid-week allowing a deep, moist flow of air from the Gulf of Mexico to push into central Florida. Again tomorrow and Tuesday, expect storms to start by early afternoon along both the east coast and west coast sea breezes, ultimately colliding across the metro areas by mid to late afternoon. Storms will then push slowly back toward the east coast, ending by midnight.

Drier air, though, is set to move in by Wednesday as that upper level low begins to move. The rain chance drops to 30% Wednesday and Thursday before the first significant front of Fall attempts to move through on Friday. I say attempt because it’s always a bit dicey with these fronts in late September or early October, but there is a great deal of model support for the arrival less humid and cooler air by the weekend. In fact, highs by Sunday will likely only be in the mid to low 80s with lows in the 60s! It will be breezy, though, and this breeze will likely pull in some clouds from the Atlantic and perhaps a few sprinkles, but we’ll monitor that chance as we get deeper into this work week.

Have a good night!

Brian Monahan

Welcome to Fall – Sort Of!

Good evening! The first day of fall (well, partial day:  autumn officially arrived just before 6 AM today as the sun passed directly over the equator) has been a wet one across central Florida with 1-3″ of rain falling in slow-moving, drenching storms. You can expect much the same as we go through the weekend; slow-moving low pressure — if it’s moving at all! — over the central part of the country will keep us locked in southwesterly flow this weekend. That means lots of moisture will pump eastward from the Gulf of Mexico and the tropics, keeping our weather very active.

Showers and storms will develop first across our western counties and right along the beaches Saturday and Sunday; rain is possible as early as mid to late morning. The most active weather will come later in the day across our central counties as sea breezes and thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. Those storms will then push back slowly toward the beaches with rain winding down each day by midnight. Rain coverage each day will be at 60%.

The upper level low will finally begin to move northeastward by early next week, allowing drier, more comfortable weather to move into central Florida. But for the weekend, keep the umbrella handy!

By the way, with this marking the first weekend of fall, some interesting statistics: on average, we still have another three weeks or so of “summer” to go. The average start of the dry season is Orlando is October 15th, with the first sub-60 degree weather moving into Orlando, on average, around October 15th.

Brian Monahan

Eye on the Tropics: Ophelia

Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed well out in the Atlantic. It appears Ophelia will stay weak. Wind shear will prevent any rapid strengthening. And a few of our forecast models actually dissipate Ophelia in about 5 days.

Here is the latest track

While models keep Ophelia weak, they also show a slight curve to the north by 5 days…

Here are the computer models:

You can see that turn at the very end of these model runs. This is because I expect a series of fronts/troughs along the East Coast. This will help keep Ophelia to the east.

If there are any substantial changes to this, we’ll let you know.

I hope you have a great day! -Brian Shields

Wet Weekend Weather!

Good evening! Some heavier downpours were around earlier today, with up to an inch of rain falling across parts of Seminole and Volusia Counties in slow moving storms. Most of that activity has settled down now after sunset, although the west coast sea breeze did (somewhat unexpectedly) become active late in the day — so there are still some storms mainly west of Sumter and Marion Counties. We’ll start the shower activity all over again tomorrow morning across our coastal counties with a more of a westward push to the storms in the forecast. By day’s end, the best chance of rain will be through the metro and our western counties. We’ll see mainly afternoon storms Thursday before a logjam develops in the atmosphere — one that will give us a wetter than average first weekend of fall!

Upper level low pressure will become “cut off” from the jet stream; this upper level low will sit across the Mississippi Valley for the better part of the weekend. That means our flow turns southwest off of the Gulf of Mexico. Coupled with waves of low pressure moving along a slow-moving front, the upper level low will drive moisture out of the Gulf toward our western counties early in the day and toward the east later in the day. The rain chance Friday through Sunday is at 60%, with 1-2″ or more of rain likely over that time. The clouds and rain chances will also hold temperatures in the 80s through the weekend.

By early next week, the upper level low will become “unstuck” and that will allow drier air to move in. But for the weekend, keep the umbrellas handy!

Brian Monahan

Wetter Coastal Weather

Good morning! After a wet day yesterday along the coast, especially in Flagler and Volusia Counties, Monday morning started with quite a few showers in the same areas. These showers were triggered by a trough of low pressure stretching from the Caribbean up the eastern seaboard and an onshore flow that helped push those showers toward the coast. Late this morning, there’s a lot of thunderstorm activity clustered east of Flagler County; there could be a weak area of low pressure developing along the trough out over the water. If this area becomes a bit better developed, that would tend to hold a lot of the moisture offshore into the afternoon, thus lowering the rain chances across our central and western counties. For now, we’ll leave the rain coverage at 50% for this afternoon with an emphasis on rain chances along the coast. Some of those showers could be on the heavier side later today.

The onshore flow will weaken somehow by the middle of the week, so by Wednesday the rain chance drops to 40%. By late in the week, though, a new cold front moving through the southeast will increase our rain chance again with the possibility of both morning and afternoon storms returning to the forecast on Friday. Through the work week, highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, just about where they usually are this time of year.

Eye on the Tropics: We’ll be watching that trough off the east coast of Florida south into the Caribbean over the next several days (at least until Friday when the next front can sweep it away). This time of year, any trough over the warm water of the Atlantic and Caribbean can become a site for tropical development; strong high pressure to the north over New England further argues for the need to watch this area. Development is unlikely, though. Elsewhere, there are two areas in the central Atlantic worth watching, the easternmost wave is the most well developed and the National Hurricane Center is giving it a “high” chance of development in the next 48 hours. The forecast models generally track this wave westward into the Caribbean over the next 5 days, so it will be worth watching.

Have a great day!

Brian Monahan

Comfortable Again Tonight!

Before an easterly and northeasterly breeze picks up Friday into the weekend, we’ll have one more comfortable night marked with low humidity and temperatures in the 60s for parts of the area. In fact, this morning, the temperature fell to 69 degrees in Orlando. That was the first time we’ve been below 70 degrees in Orlando since the first week of June! Also today, with a fifth consecutive dry day, we’ve gone the longest without measurable rain in Orlando since the first week of July.

The pattern will change for the weekend though with that northeast breeze kicking in. That will pull moisture in off of the Atlantic and increase our chance of showers; the best chance of rain will come across our eastern counties earlier in the day with everything pushing westward for the afternoon. With the breeze averaging between 10 and 20 mph, some choppier surf and rip currents will be an issue for boaters and beach-goers this weekend.

Eye on the Tropics: Maria, the third hurricane of the Atlantic season, is racing past Bermuda tonight and will move into the open waters of the North Atlantic on Friday. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is remarkably quiet for this time of year — keep in mind, we’re only just about a week past the traditional peak of the hurricane season! There are signs that the central and eastern Atlantic will become much more active by the end of the month. We will be watching the Caribbean carefully later this weekend and into next week; with strong high pressure along the east coast, the air will tend to rise/be unstable in the Caribbean which could lead to some tropical development over the next several days.

Brian Monahan